On the evening of April 27, 2026, the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU), held the 98^th "North Pavilion Seminar" lecture series themed "China's Challenges and Choices in the Post-American World." The lecture was delivered by Thomas Fingar, Shorenstein APARC Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, and former U.S. Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, as well as former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research. The lecture was chaired by Professor Yu Tiejun, President of IISS, PKU, and attended by more than 30 faculty members and students from within and outside PKU.

Fingar pointed out that the postwar international order, built and maintained by successive U.S. administrations, is now being disrupted by the current administration, leading to a marked rise in external uncertainty for countries around the world. How to respond to the upheaval in the postwar international order, he argued, is the foremost challenge currently confronting China. Fingar analyzed several prevailing views within the U.S. strategic community and contended that China does not possess a "grand strategy" to replace the United States; that China will not regard a U.S. withdrawal as an opportunity to fill a systemic vacuum; and that China's behavior cannot be predicted through simplistic role labels. Rather, China is more likely to adopt cautious, conservative, and defensive responses in order to avoid potential strategic missteps in a highly uncertain international environment.

Fingar argued that the key choice in China's domestic and foreign policy is how to maintain an international environment capable of supporting its own security, development, and overseas interests under conditions in which U.S. leadership is becoming increasingly unstable. China needs to carefully weigh the costs, responsibilities, and risks involved in participating in the maintenance of the system, and to strike a balance between preserving the existing order and assuming international responsibilities. In his view, domestic development has always been the decisive factor in China's policy, and Chinese political culture has a tradition of risk aversion; as a result, amid international upheaval, China is more inclined to take cautious action — "crossing the river by feeling the stones" — rather than radically reshaping the international order.

During the interactive session, Professor Fingar engaged in an in-depth exchange with the faculty and students present at the lecture on topics including the changing dominant position of the United States, the challenges China faces in participating in the international order, how to avoid the risk of China-U.S. conflict, and the resilience of U.S. institutions. (Contributed by Li Junhao)

Editor: Li Fangqi  Photo by: Zheng Huaizhou