Time:2010/12/27 

First of all, let me thank President Lee (李荣一) for his wonderful speech.

I certainly gained a good impression of President Lee when I met him in Seoul a few years ago. At that time, he did not give a public address. But today, I must say that I am very much struck by the foresight and thinking evident in his speech. Before moving on to discuss my take on the issues President Lee has raised, let me first take this opportunity to mention the event that was held earlier in the afternoon. This was an award ceremony during which Mr. Luo Haocai of the China-Korea Friendship Association expressed his gratitude towards General Kim Shin for the numerous contributions made by the Kim Koo Foundation. This public lecture would not have been possible without the support of the Kim Koo Foundation, so let me take this chance to once again express my appreciation.

I would now like to discuss my take on three questions, namely the proposal put forth by President Lee to create a Northeast Asia economic community, the role of China in Asia and the world and, lastly, the situation on the Korean Peninsula and the issue of strategic trust between China and South Korea.

Trade amongst the three Northeast Asian countries – China, Japan and South Korea – has been expanding rapidly. According to the figures which I have seen, bilateral trade between China and the Republic of Korea (ROK) was only 63 billion USD when diplomatic relations were established in 1992. As of 2009, bilateral trade between both counties stands at 1409 billion USD, a 21-fold increase from 1992. 

Trade relations between the ROK and Japan and ROK and the US are also important, the former standing at 712 billion USD and the latter at 667 billion USD. So even the sum of ROK-Japan and ROK-US trade is not equivalent to the level of trade between the ROK and China. This highlights the importance of Sino-ROK trade relations to both countries. From China’s perspective, China is Japan’s largest trading partner while Japan is China’s third largest trading partner. Judging from trade relations between the three countries, one can say that many of the prerequisites for a Northeast Asian economic community have already been met. 

Sensing such a prospect, the School of International Studies set up the Northeast Asia Integration Research Center three years ago. I am the director of this research centre. Despite such developments, speaking frankly, I must say that there is still a long road ahead before any economic community is created in Northeast Asia. President Lee mentioned that South Korea sees itself as a Northeast Asian country, while Japan sees itself as an East Asian country. I would like to add that China sees itself as an Asian country. I must admit that I perhaps commit the mistake of being Sino-centric at times. How does one define Asia? I personally see Asia as China and her neighbors. Of course, since I am not a diplomat, I do not need to worry about being politically correct!

Due to China's geographical location, it is imperative that China looks in all directions when formulating its foreign policy. President Lee also mentioned that Japan has been overly reliant on the US and that, despite rapid economic interdependence amongst the three countries, there is still a glaring lack of mutual political trust. 2010 was supposed to be a smooth year for China, South Korea and Japan. However, it has been marred by two unexpected incidents:, the sinking of the Cheonan and the Senkaku Islands spate between China and Japan. 

 Many in South Korea believe that the Cheonan sinking was planned by North Korea. There is also a popular rumor in China that it was planned by the US. But the Cheonan sinking was not pre-mediated. I have heard Chinese officials say that, after much investigation from all sides, the sinking will probably remain a mystery for a very long time. Similarly, Japan’s capture of the Chinese fishing captain was also probably not pre-mediated. 

Both incidents highlighted the lack of understanding between China and South Korea and China and Japan. Strategic trust is still lacking amongst all three. Such circumstances suggest that more political dialogue and interaction is needed if deeper economic integration is to be achieved. China understands the special geopolitical location that South Korea occupies. This forum and Mr. Kim Gu are testimony to the long-standing relations that China and South Korea share. 

This afternoon, let us take a brief look at Sino-ROK relations during World War Two. Mr. Kim Gu is not only the national hero of South Korea, but also a hero for all Koreans. General Kim Shin is the son of Mr. Kim Gu and fought valiantly in the war. The current chairman of the Kim Koo Foundation, Mr. Kim Ho Youn, is the son-in-law of General Kim Shin. Such history shows that China and South Korea have always been very closely related, to the point of sharing a certain sense of common destiny. 

If South Korea was located in Europe, it would be considered as one of the most important nations on the continent. However, given that she is stuck between a number of great powers – China, Japan, the US and Russia – South Korea is unable to fully project the influence and power that it has. However, as I suggested earlier, South Korea has played an important role in the past and will perhaps play an even more important role in the future. We are definitely interested in continuing the discussion about a Northeast Asian economic community with President Lee. 

I would now like to talk about China and its domestic problems. President Lee mentioned the concept of G-2 and that China might be considered the second strongest power in the world. However, we need to ask ourselves whether China's global influence really matches its economic prowess. While it might be true that China has considerable influence within Northeast Asia, this certainly does not extend as far as Europe. I recently attended a meeting in Ukraine where they invited me to talk about China. The discussion which ensued revolved mostly around Russia-Europe relations since this issue is clearly more pertinent to Europeans than China. 

Another question that we need to tackle is whether China's current growth rate can be sustained. That this is a crucial and pertinent question is suggested by the fact the Chinese leadership has introduced the concept of "sustainable development" as a way of changing the current growth model. Firstly, China needs to focus its attention on domestic issues, which are definitely more pressing than the problems it faces diplomatically. Secondly, it is imperative that China seeks to further deepen international cooperation if it is to solve its own developmental problems. 

    President Lee talked about the various problems encountered in the course of economic development, such as environmental degradation. These problems cannot be solved by China alone and can only be done through international cooperation. I also thought President Lee’s observations about nationalism in China were astute. There are certainly groups of overly nationalistic people in China, although this is not particularly evident at Peking University. Narrow nationalistic sentiments will not resolve the problems China is facing and thus must not become mainstream thought within Chinese society. 

At the School of International Studies, we aim to draw lessons from past experiences and help ensure China does not go down the route of imperialism. This entails asking the question: what kind of nation does China want to become? China does not want to become a superpower like the US. In fact, China is not interested in world power rankings. The top priority remains ensuring that the needs of all the Chinese people are met and that everyone can live comfortably. 

There are people who believe that China is set on becoming a regional hegemon. I believe that as a large country in the region, China will naturally occupy an important position in Asia. But this is not a position that China has been working purposively towards. If the biggest country in the region is destined to become its hegemon, China would have become so decades ago. The crux has been the policy choices that China has made. 

China has met with several new diplomatic challenges since the beginning of the year, which has sparked off much debate within academia. Against this backdrop, we have reached a consensus that China needs to continue on its path of peaceful development and pay special attention to its relations with neighboring countries. Lastly, let me talk about the situation on the Korean Peninsula and the issue of Sino-ROK strategic trust. 

I do not know the Korean language and therefore cannot decide if Choson Pando or Han Bando is the more politically appropriate term to describe the Peninsula. However, for China, what is certain is that it has to address the problem of how it should deal simultaneously with the ROK and the DPRK. President Lee mentioned that it is time for China to make a decision. However, I do not think that this decision is a question of whether China should choose between the ROK and the DPRK. We hope to maintain friendly relations with both. It seems that the frequency of Sino-DPRK exchanges has increased recently and that relations have become significantly warmer. 

China will continue to work to improve its relations with South Korea because it is strategically, economically and politically vital to us. For instance, the G-20 summit will be held in Seoul and not Pyongyang next month. The rational decision is to maintain and develop relations with both Koreas at the same time. In looking to improve ties with the DPRK, we hope that Pyongyang will initiate reforms that open-up the country. However, at the end of the day, the ball is in their court. Through dialogue, we are encouraging North Korea to keep to their promise of denuclearization. We are also pushing for the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. On the issue of reunification, China’s has clearly stated that it supports the peaceful reunification of the two Koreas. While this support has mainly been of a psychological nature, it is possible that China can and will provide material support to encourage peaceful reunification in the future. We hope to exchange views with our South Korean counterparts on this issue. 

I was in Seoul a month ago and during that time I heard many criticisms about China from my South Korean counterparts. I see and recognize the importance of increasing mutual trust between both countries. I believe that the Kim Koo Forum can play a valuable role in supporting that endeavor. 

Finally, I would like to thank both the Chinese and Korean students who are present here today. Thanks also to Professor Zhu Feng for chairing the session. (28th October 2010)