On the evening of October 21, 2025, the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU), successfully held the 90th session of the North Pavilion Seminar lecture series, titled “Promise and Peril of Trump’s ‘America First’”. The lecture was delivered by Mr. Charles Kupchan, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University . It was moderated by Professor Wang Jisi, Founding President of IISS, PKU, and attended by more than 60 faculty members and students from across PKU.

Professor Kupchan first pointed out that the world is once again in a transitional period marked by the “disintegration of the old order and the absence of a new one.” He identified four key manifestations of this trend: the world is undergoing the most severe geopolitical turmoil since World War II; economic nationalism has created rifts not seen since the 1930s; the demand for global governance is growing while countries’ capacity for cooperation is diminishing; and the world is heading toward a future that is less free and less just.

He then further elaborated on the underlying causes behind these global trends: power is being redistributed, with its center shifting from West to East and from North to South, leading to the emergence of a more decentralized international order. The rapid transition from the industrial era to the digital age has triggered both a redistribution of power and profound changes in economic structures. Meanwhile, the intensifying political polarization has led to the erosion of the political center and the hollowing out of the middle class.

In addition, Professor Kupchan analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of President Trump’s strategies in responding to these global trends. On the positive side, Trump recognized that the existing international order was unsustainable and thus positioned himself as a driver of change. He adopted a pragmatic approach, focusing on practical problem-solving and deal-making, and introduced policy adjustments in areas such as immigration and gender issues. However, the disadvantages of his approach include the following: Trump’s strategic thinking reflects characteristics of the 19th-century American strategy — marked by unilateralism, isolationism, protectionism, and anti-immigration tendencies — while lacking long-term vision and strategic planning. His tariff policies not only disrupted the global economy but also failed to effectively advance America’s goal of becoming an industrial powerhouse. Moreover, his presidency may have caused irreversible damage on the United States’ democratic institutions.

In conclusion, Professor Kupchan emphasized that China and the United States bear a special responsibility to avoid conflicts that could arise during the ongoing power transition. Breakthroughs achieved in bilateral trade could help create space for addressing broader geopolitical challenges. To effectively govern a multipolar world, countries must first focus on resolving their domestic political and economic issues, which form the basis for developing sound and responsible foreign policies.

During the Q&A session, Professor Kupchan engaged in an in-depth discussion with the faculty and students on topics such as U.S. domestic politics, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and international cooperation. (Contributed by: Ma Li'ao)

Editor: Li Fangqi Photographer: Zheng Huaizhou