On May 8, 2024, the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU) held the 75th North Pavilion Seminar series lecture. Ashley J. Tellis, Chairman of Strategic Affairs at Tata Group and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, gave a lecture titled “The Future of U.S.-China Competition: Risks without Rewards”. The lecture was hosted by Gui Yongtao, Vice President of IISS, PKU and Associate Dean of the School of International Studies (SIS), PKU.

Dr. Tellis first reviewed how the U.S. and China shifted from open cooperation to "strategic competition". He identified structural factors, such as the post-war U.S. efforts to promote global prosperity through a free trade system that did not bring peace but rather created inequality in the international system, leading to new competition. The domestic factors included sparked suspicion and fear in the U.S. of the rise of China after the financial crisis , and the damage to the American middle class due to deindustrialization, leading to growing opposition to free trade and criticism of China.

Dr. Tellis then analyzed the three dimensions of U.S.-China "competition." The core of economic "competition" is dominance in leading global industries, setting technical standards, and accessing trade markets. Due to the close relationship between China's neighboring countries and the U.S., the security dilemma triggered by China's rise has evolved into a geopolitical "competition" between China and the U.S.. Differences over the Taiwan issue have led to military and technological "competition" between the two countries.

Finally, Dr. Tellis pointed out that the U.S. is reducing its reliance on Chinese supply chains economically, building alliances to contain China politically, and shifting from counterterrorism to great power competition militarily. These actions will inevitably bring significant risks. Both sides shall strive to avoid falling into war while finding ways to manage differences.

In the Q&A session, Dr. Tellis discussed with the audience how to improve U.S.-China relations economically, labor mobility in globalization, U.S.-China technological "decoupling" and key points in the evolution of U.S.-China relations. (Content contributor: Ma Li'ao)

Editor: Li Fangqi Photographer: Zheng Peijie