On the afternoon of October 25, 2023, Joseph Nye, Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University, was invited to attend the lecture series under the 68th North Pavilion Seminar co-hosted by the School of International Studies (SIS) and the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU). Prof. Nye delivered a lecture titled "Are the U.S and China Destined for War?" The event was chaired by Wang Jisi, Professor at SIS and Founding President of IISS, PKU. Nearly four hundred faculty, students, and external experts and scholars attended the event.

Joseph Nye began his talk by reviewing the development course of China-U.S. relations since 1949, observing that these relations have undergone cycles of approximately 20 years each, transitioning from hostility to cooperation, and eventually evolving into present state of major power competition. He pointed out that the current worsening of relations cannot be solely attributed to former U.S. President Trump, as the change in U.S.' stance towards China started before the 2016 presidential election, which was fueled by trade disputes, intellectual property concerns, and disagreements over the Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea.

Nye argued that the current state of China-U.S. relations does not constitute a "New Cold War." He stated that if one looks back at the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, it is evident that although there was military and political competition between the two countries, their connections in the economic and social realms were very sparse. However, currently there is strong economic, social, and ecological interdependence between China and the U.S., which can be exemplified by climate change and COVID-19 pandemic prevention and management. These global challenges should not be only limited by political rules. Therefore, China and the United States should seek more dialogue and strengthen their joint collaboration when facing global challenges. Though there is some "decoupling" in security areas, economic decoupling will not happen and a complete decoupling would be catastrophic.

On defining the China-U.S. relations, Nye proposed the concept of "cooperative rivalry" or "competitive coexistence" by considering both competition and cooperation. He stressed the importance of cooperation despite ongoing competition. According to him, China and the United States are not "destined for war," but there is a possibility that they might inadvertently, almost like sleepwalkers, stumble into a war. Although human history is replete with such mistakes, war can be avoided as long as China and the U.S. strengthen their cooperation and act cautiously.

Prof. Wang Jisi provided a targeted commentary on Nye's lecture, agreeing with his analysis of the causes for deterioration in China-U.S. relations. He stated that the future China-U.S. relations will depend on various factors. Both countries need to deepen cooperation and prevent a Cold War with joint efforts.

In the Q&A session, Nye addressed questions on moral diplomacy, rebuilding trust between the two nations, and understanding Biden administration's national security strategy.  (Contributed by Shi Wenlu)

Editor: Li Fangqi, Photographer: Zheng Peijie