On the evening of December 6th, 2019, the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU) held the 41st session of "North Pavilion Dialogue" lecture series. Daniel R. Russel, Vice President for International Security and Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) and Former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, the U.S. Department of State, gave a lecture entitled "Competitors or Adversaries: Can the U.S. and China Stop the Slide Toward Strategic Rivalry?" The seminar was hosted by Gui Yongtao, Vice President of the IISS and Vice President of the School of International Studies (SIS), PKU.

Russell began the seminar with an assessment of the current U.S.-China relations. He noted that the U.S.-China engagement has experienced ups and downs, but at this moment the relations are trapped in a vicious cycle of sharp decline. Russell argued that while the attitude of the leaders is an important influencing factor, it is not the root cause of the strained relations. It is important to see that there is a deeper motivation behind the trend of internalization inside the U.S. than the "superpower fatigue syndrome". Besides, it is normal to be afraid of powerful rivals. Yet conflict between major powers is not inevitable.

Russell went on to say that the U.S. and China are already engaged in a trade war and a technology war, as well as an "influence war" that is constantly undermining each other's international image and status and forcing third-party countries to "choose sides", but the real worrisome prospect is that the two countries are moving toward an ideological war.

He argued that while competition is a benign relationship, it will not end well if the two countries eventually become strategic rivals. They should start from the following two points to form a sustainable and healthy competitive relationship: one is to maintain, increase, and reshape real communication channels, and the other one is to stay rational and solve issues by focusing on specific problems and behaviors.

During the discussion session, Russell had exchanges and discussions with the teachers and students present at the seminar on issues such as Trump's policy towards China and the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. (Contributed by Zeng Chuyuan)

Editor: Li Fangqi, Zeng Chuyuan photographer: Zheng Peijie