On the evening of October 20th, 2021, the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU) held the 54th series of "North Pavilion Dialogue" lectures. Prof. Wang Xinsheng from the History Department, PKU gave a lecture titled "Japan's Policy towards China and Its Domestic Politics – Exemplified by the Second Abe Shinzo’s Regime". The lecture was presided over by Gui Yongtao, Vice President, IISS, PKU, and, Vice President, School of International Studies (SIS), PKU.

Mr. Wang Xinsheng first pointed out that he hoped to explore the regularity of Japan's policy towards China in the new century through analysis of the second Abe Shinzo’s Regime. He briefly reviewed the basic situation and representative events of Sino-Japan relations before and after Abe Shinzo took office in 2012, including the Ship Collision incident in 2010, the "Nationalization" of Diaoyu Island in 2012, China's Anti-Japanese protests in 2012, Japan’s allegations that a Chinese naval vessel targeted its fire control radar at a Japanese destroyer in January 2013, and pinpointed the tense relations between China and Japan on maritime rights, security and historical issues at that time. But since the meeting between Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and President Xi Jinping in 2014, the relation between both countries has been easing up and Japan presented more active attitude towards China's Belt and Road Initiative, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other initiatives. Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's visit to China in 2018 pushed the friendly relations between China-Japan to the peak in his ruling period.

Then, Mr. Wang Xinsheng analyzed the social changes in Modern Japan and its impact on the political structure. He stated that the Heisei era was a process of social change when Japan entered a post-industrialized society based on network communication with social trends featured by super singleness and low desire. Through detailed data, Mr. Wang expounded three negative effects of social changes on Japan's social and political structure. First, the share of employees in the tertiary industry and informal employment had increased, and the residential income gap between them had widened; second, the non-marriage rate had been increasing year by year, and the phenomenon of aging population and fewer children is becoming more and more serious; third, the organization rate of society had decreased rapidly, and the relationship between traditional interest groups and political parties had basically collapsed. From the perspective of the political process of modern society, Mr. Wang believed that Japanese interest groups could not effectively aggregate public opinions and mobilize political resources, thus undermining the political cycle process. In this context, leaders of political parties tended to become election signboards and theater-featured politicians.

Next, Mr. Wang Xinsheng explained the paradoxes of decision-makings led by the prime minister’s official residence. After the war, Japan's decision-making model was controlled by bureaucrats, then by political parties in the 1970s; now, under the background of increasingly loosed traditional interest groups, decision-making was mainly led by the prime minister’s office. The prime minister’s office strengthened its power and weakened the influence of factions in the Liberal Democratic Party through the reformed institutions such as recognized candidates and the distribution of political party subsidies. At the same time, the administrative reform had divided the power of ministries and departments such as the Ministry of Finance and improved the position of the prime minister’s office. However, the paradox of the decision-making led by the prime minister’s office was that if the prime minister's personal leadership and courage were not strong enough, he would not be able to give full plays to the institutional advantages, but instead would be bound by the system. Therefore, Mr. Wang Xinsheng speculated that the foundation of Fumio Kishida 's regime was too fragile to give full play to the leading role of the prime minister’s office. On the contrary, it would be affected by public opinion, which might exacerbate the instability of its China policy.

During the Q&A session, Mr. Wang Xinsheng had discussions and exchanges with the teachers and students on the paradoxes of decision-makings led by the prime minister’s official residence, Japanese political issues from the horizontal and vertical perspectives, the improvement of China-Japan relations and the significances of the Confucian cultural community in East Asia.

Editor: Li Fangqi   photographer: Zheng Peijie