Time:2008/7/18 

On June 11, 2008 Upon invitation from the Center for International & Strategic Studies, the former Pacific Commander of the United States Navy, Admiral Dennis Blair, gave a talk on issues of East Asian security, engaging in lively discussion with scholars and doctoral students of the School of International Studies at Peking University. The focal point of the roundtable discussion was issues related to the Taiwan Straits Relations, Sino-US Relations, and the budgets and capabilities of the Chinese armed forces. 

Admiral Blair began his presentation by frankly introducing some questions and suspicions of Western countries in regard to China’s genuine intentions, whether it is seeking to restore its former hegemony as the “middle kingdom” in the region. Many western skeptics are concerned as to whether rise of China’s economic power may translate into military capability, and expanded influence in the region and beyond. However, in analysis of China’s international behavior, it is easily conjectured that China does not pose any threat in the region and its actions are trustworthy. 

Although the Taiwan Strait issue is complex, there is a very low likelihood of military conflict. Nonetheless, the Chinese government may continue to discourage Taiwan from its attempts to expand in the international sphere. Regarding the prospect of military maneuvers in or across the Taiwan Strait, Admiral Blair assessed any attempt by the PLA’s to conquer and subdue the island as doubtful due to geography and limited military capability. However, there is no doubt that the PLA could damage the island in significant way. Professor Zhu Feng echoed Blair’s view that the lack of actual combat experience since the 1979 border dispute makes it hard to assess actual capabilities. 

As to the issue of China’s military capabilities, the United States and others should not be alarmed by the empirical developments. In contrast, the United States has deployed considerable armed forces in many different countries, while China does not possess such military capability to protect its interests in other regions, even in Southeast Asia. In addition, there is no viable counterpart which might replace or marginalize the United States in the East Asian region. Thus, the influence of the United States in the region remains strong for the foreseeable future. 

There are also some positive trends projected in Sino-US relations. Although it may be that some hard-liners in China view the United States with skepticism, both the general populace and CPC authorities consider the United States to be an exceptionally good partner. Unlike the cases in other parts of Asia, there is no significant anti-American sentiment in China, but instead optimism for future Sino-US relations. 

Scholars on the Chinese side also raised a concern about academic methodologies of American military experts in studying the Chinese military. It appears that American scholars rely heavily on “discourse analysis”, paying heavy attention to words and their connotations. However, both sides agreed upon the point that the role of the Chinese military in non-military missions, as in the Sichuan disaster relief efforts, undoubtedly brings about a positive image of the armed forces.