Time:2010/9/28 

Dr. Thomas Fingar visited CISS on September 14, 2010 to talk to students and faculty about US-China relations and to present his research on China’s response to the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). Dr. Fingar is the Oksenbergh/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. He previously had a lengthy career in the US government, serving latterly as Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and, concurrently, Chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 2005-8. He has focused on China and East Asia throughout much of his professional and academic career. CISS Deputy Director Professor Zhu Feng and CISS General-Secretary Associate Professor Yu Tiejun hosted the meeting. 

Dr Fingar began by offering a historical overview of Sino-US relations over the past 50 years, drawing on his experience as both a scholar and practitioner in government. He argued that the relentless focus on “current” issues in the bilateral relationship obscures the dramatic transformation in US-China relations since the 1960s. Both countries had not only radically changed their relations with each other, but also undergone dramatic internal changes that were overwhelmingly in a “positive” direction. The US has moved beyond the era of Vietnam and the civil rights movement and become increasingly prosperous. China has come to benefit from globalization and participate in a US-led international order towards which it was once deeply antagonistic. US-China relations should be viewed from a long-term and historical perspective, Dr Fingar argued, rather than dwelling on short-term political spats that were the inevitable by-products of a more intense relationship. 

Dr Fingar also used his presentation to counter some of the suggestions aired by politicians and the media about the perilous states of US-China relations. He argued, for instance, that there was no empirical basis to believe that American jobs were being “lost” to China. It was better understood as part of the general shift in the manufacturing sector away from the West, which began many years ago and is reflected by the constant level of the trade deficit that the US has maintained with Asia over the past 30 years. The US’s share of the global economy may be gradually decreasing, but it still enjoys increasing prosperity despite China’s rise – indeed, the availability of cheaper Chinese consumer goods has actually helped improve living standards. Moving beyond these issues to focus instead on shared “enduring interests” and building greater “strategic trust” should be the priority for both American and Chinese governments. In particular, Dr Fingar suggested, the US needs China’s support in helping to reform institutions of global governance so that they better reflect the distribution of power in the 21st century. 

In his second presentation, Dr Fingar discussed his research into China’s response to the 2010 NPR that was released by the US government in April 2010. Drawing on media commentary and interviews, he argued that Chinese experts consider the 2010 NPR to be an improvement on its 2002 predecessor. They point to a number of positive developments: that China is no longer grouped with rogue states hostile to the US that might be attacked by the US with nuclear weapons; that the sole purpose of nuclear weapons is to deter nuclear attacks on the US; that the US has committed to reducing its nuclear inventories, pledged to ratify the CTBT and promised to not develop new nuclear weapons except under exceptional circumstances; and that the US will no longer threaten to retaliate against chemical or biological attacks by non-nuclear states with nuclear force. Dr Fingar said that these features were positively contrasted in Chinese commentaries with the 2002 NPR, which was received with considerable hostility in China. 

Dr Fingar argued that there nevertheless remained considerable suspicion in China about what could be discerned about US objectives and intentions from the 2010 NPR. Criticism of the document focused on: its emphasis on enhancing conventional and missile defense capabilities, which was seen as arguably negating commitments to denuclearize; statements expressing continued adherence to regional nuclear deterrence and extended deterrence in East Asia; plans to begin joint US-Russian nuclear decommissioning were interpreted by some as a tool to pressurize China into following suit; and the report’s criticism of China’s lack of military and strategic transparency. These concerns, Dr Fingar suggested, demonstrate that suspicion about US strategic motivations persists in China, where many analysts saw the 2010 NPR in general terms as a method of preserving US hegemony and “blackmailing” China. After presenting his research, Dr Fingar engaged in a dialogue with Professor Zhu Feng on the 2010 NPR before taking questions from students and faculty.