Time:2014/2/21 

On January 15th, 2014, the Seminar on “Changes of Current External Strategic Security Environment” was held at IISS, Peking University. The seminar was co-hosted by IISS and the Research Group of “New Changes of Strategic Opportunity Period for China's Development in the Next Decade” (a Key Project of National Social Science Fund, 2013), China Institute of International Studies (CIIS). Present at the seminar were experts in related areas from Peking University, CIIS, National Defense University and Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C. Dr. Xu Jian, Chief Expert in the Research Group and Director of the CIIS Academic Council, gave the opening remarks. He briefed the attendees about the general information and outlines of the research project, saying that “Tendencies of China’s External Strategic Security Environment” is an essential sub-project of this project, and the main purpose of holding such a seminar is to broadly use social resources in order to better intellectually support the research project. IISS Prof. Zhu Feng, Chief of the sub-project and Associate Dean of IISS, was commissioned by the research group to welcome and thank the attending experts. 

At the seminar, experts exchanged their ideas mainly about global strategic environment and hot topics about the United States, Japan and China’s surrounding areas. 

Prof. Jiang Lingfei, an former member of the Strategic Research Institute, National Defense University, pointed out that the golden age of peaceful development has come to an end, while an age of turmoil has started and disorder will be the theme of future international situation. China needs to sufficiently realize the possibility of such a serious situation and make prudent decisions. Synthesizing the international situation since last year, we should see the double dilemma in theory and practice, as well as the contents and nature of maintaining certain measures and elasticity in the security area. We should also step out of the mechanical loop of “conflict” and “reconciliation,” and create a plan for new security in a global era. 

Associate Dean of School of International Studies, Peking University, Prof. Wang Yizhou, said that predictive analysis of mid- and long-term should change its past thinking modes and make a shift from familiar traditional rigid fields towards new phenomena in chaos. Traditional ways of thinking, more or less marked by the Cold War, become increasingly unable to agree with current situations. Thus, people need to do better strategic researches and predict strategic accidents as early as possible. 

Prof. Han Baojiang, Dean of the Institute for International Strategies, Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C., held that although China has sailed in favorable waters for the past decade, she is approaching various bottlenecks of reform and development with a more intense sense of urgency. The considerable driving force behind reform is being challenged by vested interests, internal disputes and ideological obstacles. 

Prof. Tang Yongsheng of the Strategic Research Institute, National Defense University, stressed that the tendency of peace and development will continue and no hot war may occur. However, several issues still call for attention: first of all, how to repair the links of financial markets within a relative saturate international economic system that cannot provide additional energy; secondly, we may have not sufficiently realized the fact that there is an obvious power shift with very active strategic adjustments that other countries have almost finished; thirdly, China does not possess enough deterrence-making ability and should wait patiently for the chance to complete that task in a move. 

Prof. Sun Zhe, Director of Center of China-U.S. Relations, Tsinghua University, gave his opinions about the future development of China-U.S. relations. He held that the “hiding one’s light” doctrine of Deng Xiaoping was mainly about hiding the light on ideology issues. Today, it is arguable that the PLA is over-aware of potential dangers. Constructing a new model of relations must be supported by interests. China needs further learning and emulating in fields like trust system and intellectual property, thus discussion should replace direct rejection when talking about these topics.

Dean of IISS, Prof. Wang Jisi, said that the U.S. foreign policy is now showing contraction, or at least a tendency of it. As for the future, it is incorrect to over- or under- estimate the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.’s failure to recognize China’s political institution and China’s reluctance to recognize the U.S. world leadership both create difficult structural contradictions. 

Prof. Guan Guihai, Executive Associate Dean of IISS, concurred with the judgment about an uncertain future tendency. Taking Russia as an example, China is more optimistic about Russia than Russia is about herself. Russia has an unsettled industrial structure and development mode. The future of China-Russia alignment is also unclear. 

Prof. Wang Xinsheng, Deputy Director of Department of History, Peking University, pointed out that there is a possibility of China-Japan relations deteriorating, which would be a long-term process occurring in an extended period of time. The Abe administration may take actions that further irritate China to push her towards strategic misjudgments. Meanwhile, the most influence on the interactions between these two countries still comes from the U.S. Following his comment, attendees of the seminar further discussed the estimates of Japanese power, the firmness of U.S.-Japan alignment, and possible solutions of the disputes on Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.

By the end of the seminar, attendees openly discussed the influence of hot topics in surrounding areas on China’s external security environment. It was commonly held that China’s strategic studies need to make a redefinition on core interests. Prof. Jiang Lingfei pointed out that it may need to exercise prudence before deciding whether core interests and the path of peaceful development can run parallel without contradiction, since national interest is a fundamental issue with much rigidity and little elasticity, and China’s interest in exporting must change the status-quo. Associate Dean of IISS Prof. Zhu Feng said that three factors in surrounding areas may be most crucial to China in the next decade: the Japan factor, the changing role of ASEAN, and the extent to which the U.S. may go with her “Rebalancing to Asia-Pacific” Policy. Furthermore, the DPRK issue and understanding of the role of Russia also attracted significant attention from attendees. Prof. Zhu held that China should work on the support of South Korea. Other experts also expressed their opinions on whether there is a need to reconsider China’s position on the DPRK issue. The seminar also discussed the practical implementation of initiatives of the Maritime Silk Road and precautions against the hollowing out of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The seminar also discussed the practical implementation of initiatives of the Maritime Silk Road and precautions against the hollowing out of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.