Time:2014/1/16 

On January 6, Dr. Ivan Safranchuk, Deputy Director of the Institute of Contemporary International Studies, Diplomatic Academy, Moscow, made a speech on the situation in Afghanistan and Russian Afghanistan policy at a special meeting held by IISS at Peking University. IISS President Prof. Wang Jisi, Vice President Prof. Zhufeng, Assistant President, Associate Prof. Yu Tiejun, Academic Fellows, Associate Prof. Qian Xuemei and Associate Prof. Wu Bingbing and Prof. Gao Fei from China Foreign Affairs University were all present at the meeting. Executive Vice President Associate Prof. Guan Guihai hosted the session.

Dr. Safranchuk has been researching Central Asia with a focus on Pakistan and Afghanistan for the past decade. He began by pointing out that Russia does not agree with the various versions of the “Big Central Asia Project” that have been proposed by Western countries. As observed on his multiple visits to Afghanistan during the past few years, he believes there is a distinction between the local reality and Western accounts.

Dr. Safranchuk began by commenting on the recent situation in Afghanistan. He has observed that the conflicts between the Afghan Armed Forces and anti-government forces are increasing. Every year, more than a third of the personnel desert the Afghan Armed Forces. Despite the high salary, which is the main attraction for joining the military, many are starting to think that nothing can compensate for the psychological shock of killing or being killed in armed conflicts. During the Soviet occupation, the conscription of the Afghan government targeted orphans, who had little social connections and appeared easier to brainwash. New social groups, including bureaucrats and security forces, have grown from this group. However, unlike their predecessors, the current security personnel are fully socially connected and suffer under huge moral pressure. Moreover, the tension between tribes and the state also leads to a high turnover and low loyalty. There is often a 50/50 chance that soldiers would drop their duty to the state at the call of their tribe leaders, making the situation very dangerous for the Afghan government. Dr.Safranchuk believes that the national security force can only survive with an agreement or compromise between political tycoons in Kabul. 

As for politics, Pushtuns and Tajiks in Afghanistan have achieved certain reconciliation under the leadership of the Pushtun President Karzai. But such reconciliation is only made with influence from the U.S. and is very limited. The presidential election coming in April will also bring new changes. Dr. Abdullah, the Tajik candidate, is highly likely to win should his opponents balance and neutralize each other. This may bring new challenges to Afghan politics, including the risk of a large scale civil war, as the first publicly-elected Tajik President is unlikely to be accepted by Pushtuns and Taliban. Dr. Safranchuk believes that the U.S. is not prepared for the various possibilities, the worst being that the election results wipe out the existing reconciliation and compromise among tribes. However, the warlords do not appear to want a conflict that would put their newly acquired fortunes at risk . 

Once the U.S. economic assistance decreases or withdraws completely with the American troops, Dr. Safranchuk does not predict that there will be an extension of economic assistance from Europe.. There could be a conflict between warlords if no compromise is made prior to the termination of economic aid. There were a few small or mid-scale manufacturing enterprises, which provided jobs for 15% of the workforce. For the past decade, Americans have barely developed the manufacture industry. The economic performance of Afghanistan today mostly comes from entrecote trade, which is unlikely to be the pillar of an economy with 40 million people. The economic future of Afghanistan is worrisome without local industry and foreign investment.

Dr. Safranchuk concluded his speech with “one emphasis” and “two disillusions.” First of all, Afghanistan must put emphasis on social changes. With a young population, Afghan society is welcoming the entrance of its first batch of youths who will hopefully grow up and finish their education without disturbance. Statistics shows that 100 thousand of these youths start job-hunting every year, a figure can bring huge pressure on employment rates. The two disillusions that Afghanistan may face are: 1. The over self-estimation of Afghanistan as the center of world politics; while great powers are not really treating Afghanistan as their strategic priority, this thinking may be dangerous; 2. The belief that Afghanistan will have a bright future is not supported by a solid domestic manufacture industry, and it faces uncertain sources of assistance as the foreign investment is likely to decrease. The so-called “10 Year Program” of the World Bank has been made by Western countries, who will not actually take responsibility for the execution. The responsibility might be shift to Russia and China. The first thing to do is draw Afghans back from disillusions. Then it can be decided whether to isolate this country, or to re-embrace her into regional order. 

At the meeting, Associate Prof. Yu Tiejun, Prof. Gao Fei and Associate Prof. Qian Xuemei also discussed in depth with Dr. Safranchuk on a large variety of issues, including Russian Afghanistan policy, regional organizations in Central Asia, and the drug economy in Afghanistan.