On the morning of November 1st, 2019, Mr. Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, who was invited to attend the 6th Annual Meeting of the “North Pavilion Dialogue” hosted by the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU)", delivered a speech at the North Pavilion entitled “The Coming U.S.-China Competition: What Does It Mean For Russia?” Yu Tiejun, Vice President of IISS, PKU and Associate Professor, School of International Studies (SIS), PKU and dozens of PKU students and teachers attended the event. The lecture was chaired by Guan Guihai, Executive Vice President of IISS, PKU and Associate Professor of SIS, PKU.
Kortunov first reviewed some new problems faced by the world today, such as rising nationalist and populist moods, a threat of religious fundamentalism, and growing military spending. He particularly emphasized that the strength momentum of China and the United States is changing right now. In the future, China may economically surpass the United States and be able to militarily contend against it. However, China’s economic growth may also slow down, and the U.S. might continue to maintain its leadership position and pose a long-term challenge to China.
Kortunov also predicted the future international situation and the trend of Sino-U.S. relations with four quadrants, namely, the Washington Consensus 2.0, which rather speaks in favour of cooperation, the axis of China and India, the multipolar power balance that promotes conflicts, and the new bipolar order.
In the quadrant of “Washington Consensus 2.0”, the United States will sustain its hegemonic position, and North Korean nuclear issue as well as the South China Sea issue will be effectively controlled and handled. But the following questions are vital for this quadrant: where will the U.S. go after Trump Administration? Will U.S. allies continue to be loyal to the United States? What new forms of Sino-American cooperation will emerge? These questions remain to be observed. In the “China-India Axis” quadrant, Kortunov believes that the power balance among big powers will make the international environment more favorable to China. China’s economic, military, and political strength will rise in an all-round way. The trend of China-India relations will be very important. Some of U.S.’ allies will be increasingly dependent on China economically. In the “multipolar power balance” quadrant, the U.S. will continue to implement offshore balancing strategy to ensure that no potential hegemonic powers will appear to challenge it on the Eurasian continent. In the “new bipolar order” quadrant, the Sino-American conflict may be further aggravated, and the ocean issue may become one focus of the contradictions. A new cold war may consequently occur.
Kortunov opines that it is difficult for Russia to play a role of mediator in the Sino-U.S. competition. Under the background of escalating Sino-American competition, China and Russia can explore deeper level cooperation in areas such as regional security, IT, energy, space technology, anti-secession, agriculture, and international cooperation mechanisms, etc. In addition, for Russia, increasingly close Sino-European and Sino-Japanese relations also present some opportunities. However, regardless of military factors, Russia’s national strength is obviously weaker, and Sino-Russian’s economic cooperation has not effectively boosted Russia’s economic strength. For China, importance of Sino-Russian relations may not necessarily outweigh that of Sino-U.S. relations.
In the end, Kortunov had further academic exchange and discussions with the teachers and students present at the lecture on issues such as “China-India Axis” and Sino-Russian space technological cooperation, etc.
Editor: Li Fangqi Photographer: Zheng Peijie
Features
