On the afternoon of October 29^th, 2019, Kim Sung-Hwan, President of Gangwon Art and Cultural Foundation and Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Republic of Korea, was invited to attend the 6^th Annual Meeting of “North Pavilion Dialogue” hosted by the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU), and delivered a speech entitled “Is Regional Security Architrcture In Northeast Asia Possible?” at the North Pavilion. Prof. Wang Jisi, President of IISS, PKU, Chen Changwei, Associate Professor of School of International Studies (SIS), PKU and more than 20 PKU teachers and students attended the lecture. The speech was chaired by Gui Yongtao, Vice President of IISS, PKU and Vice President of SIS, PKU.

Kim Sung-Hwan first reviewed the current status of Northeast Asia. Since Donald Trump became president of the United States, he has brought many changes to the world politics: from announcing the United States’ withdrawal from the TPP agreement, to the Sino-U.S. trade war, and then to the United States’ request for South Korea and other allies to share more responsibilities. Northeast Asia is an area that has been impacted to the greatest extent by Trump’s policies. Meanwhile, Kim Sung-Hwan also analyzed the status quo of bilateral relations between South Korea and Japan, South Korea and China, South Korea and North Korea, and pinpointed that establishing a regional multilateral security architecture is of great significance from the perspective of South Korea.

Then, Kim Sung-Hwan discussed new trends of economic integration in Asia. First, further development of global supply chain has bonded the countries in the region closer with each other. Second, the development of free trade agreements. The TPP has currently come into force, and although the U.S. has withdrawn from the TPP, the TPP is still operating under the guidance of Japan. China, Japan and South Korea have not yet concluded a free trade agreement, and they shall work towards this direction in the future. Third, the founding and development of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). AIIB is a multilateral development organization for Asian region initiated by China. In Kim Sung-Hwan’s view, Japan should not regard AIIB as a competitor since AIIB mainly focuses on infrastructure construction in Asia which will help to improve the connectivity within Asian region.

Kim Sung-Hwan believes that the current status of the multilateral security architecture in Northeast Asia is not optimistic. If China, Japan and South Korea can join hands together, they can play a bigger role on the world arena. In his opinion, there are three main obstacles to the construction of such regional security architecture: First, the competitive situation between the U.S. and China. Both countries are the main actors in this region. Although the U.S. is located outside of Northeast Asia, it is a military ally of South Korea and Japan. If there is no good Sino-U.S. relationship, then the regional multilateral security architecture is unimaginable. Second, the North Korean nuclear issue. South Korea has taken many measures and actions to promote the resolution of this issue. There have been also many dialogues between the U.S. and North Korea, but still only slow progress has been achieved so far. In view of Kim Sung-Hwan, the reason lies in that the U.S. and North Korea had different definition and steps regarding denuclearization from the very beginning. Third, nationalist sentiments exist inside the countries in this region. In the current conflict between South Korea and Japan, political leaders of both countries are using domestic nationalist sentiments to manage the bilateral relations. As a result, it is difficult to come with many existing difficulties.

According to Kim Sung-Hwan, the construction of a multilateral security architecture in Northeast Asia requires a number of conditions and premises. First, main regional actors should participate in the construction and maintenance of this structure. Second, the North Korean nuclear issue should be properly resolved so as to promote the denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

Finally, Kim Sung-Hwan had further discussions and opinion exchanges with the teachers and students present at the event on issues, such as difficulties faced by China, Japan and South Korea in the establishment of regional multilateral security architecture, possibilities to manage the North Korean nuclear issue, South Korea’s position and the role in U.S.’ Indo-Pacific strategy, and prospects of the Six-Party talks.

Editor: Li Fangqi    Photographer: Zheng Peijie