On the evening of May 21, 2025, the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU) successfully held the 87th session of the North Pavilion Seminar lecture series, titled “The Current Situation, Root Causes, and Outlook of the India–Pakistan Conflict.” The lecture was delivered by Associate Professor Wang Xu from the Department of South Asian Studies, School of Foreign Languages, PKU, and chaired by Associate Professor Gui Yongtao, Vice President of the IISS, PKU. The event attracted more than 30 faculty members and students from across and beyond PKU.

Professor Wang Xu began by examining the April 22 terrorist attack in Kashmir that triggered the latest India–Pakistan conflict, and analyzed  several distinctive features of this round of confrontation: First, expanded geographical scope — the conflict has expanded beyond Kashmir to encompass multiple major cities in both countries; Second, more diverse means — combining weaponization of water resources, public opinion warfare, and cyber warfare with traditional military operations; Third, militarization of conflict objectives — escalating from “counter-terrorism strikes” to direct attacks on each other’s military targets.

Professor Wang then analyzed the causes of the persistent turmoil in South Asia from three levels: the international situation, regional conflicts, and domestic politics. At the level of international situation, he noted that the world has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation. The United States’ capacity and willingness to maintain global hegemony are gradually declining, and its strategic focus has shifted eastward, which has intensified traditional geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific and triggered regional conflicts. At the level of regional conflicts, Professor Wang provided an in-depth analysis of the focal points and origins of the China–India conflict and the India–Pakistan conflict, emphasizing that the contradictions among regional powers remain a heavy burden prolonging instability in South Asia. At the level of domestic politics, he pointed out that transformations across multiple domains, coupled with deepening interaction in South Asian countries, constitute a profound internal driver of regional unrest. Economically, South Asian countries are caught in the dilemma of “isomorphic competition”. Politically, their domestic conflicts have intensified, where traditional family-based politics face challenges in generational succession, and political turbulence occurs frequently. Socially, globalization and urbanization continue to disrupt the traditional social structures of South Asian countries.

Finally, Professor Wang Xu analyzed the prospects of the India–Pakistan conflict and its implications for China. He argued that the India–Pakistan rivalry is deeply entrenched and difficult to resolve. Future conflicts could take the form of diplomatic disputes, small-scale skirmishes, or even large-scale war, with a high risk of escalation. He emphasized that cooperation among major powers is the key to preventing further conflict.

During the interactive session, Professor Wang engaged in in-depth discussions with faculty and students on topics such as the deterrent behavior of India and Pakistan during the conflict, the impact of the new round of clashes on Pakistan’s domestic politics, and ways to strengthen China–Pakistan relations under the new circumstances.
(Contributed by: Fan Jiayuan)

Editor: Li Fangqi  Photographer: Zheng Huaizhou