On the evening of June 9, 2023, the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU) hosted the lecture series under the 63th North Pavilion Seminar. Avery Goldstein, Professor of the Department of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, the Inaugural Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, and Associate Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, delivered a lecture titled "The Future of Responsible Nuclear Statecraft: New Era, Old Realities." The lecture was chaired by Gui Yongtao, Vice President of IISS, and Associate Dean of the School of International Studies (SIS), PKU.

Prof. Avery Goldstein first reviewed the evolution of nuclear war risks in different periods since 1945. He noted that despite new technologies capable of making defense against nuclear weapons and preemptive nuclear strikes more effective, the two fundamental characteristics of the nuclear age have not changed. Firstly, nuclear deterrence remains very easy to achieve. The uncertainty in the effectiveness of offensive and defensive capabilities in nuclear warfare, coupled with the possibility of catastrophic nuclear retaliation, instills fear in the adversaries of nuclear-armed states. Secondly, even under such circumstances, the risk of nuclear war still exists. States continue to intimidate their adversaries with nuclear brinkmanship, causing dangerous escalations, as a result, the risk of accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons also increases.

Then Prof. Avery Goldstein proposed four criteria for a responsible nuclear state strategy. First, a limited-scale nuclear arsenal sufficient to deter adversaries should be maintained to avoid a nuclear arms race. Second, given the unpredictability of crisis trajectories, efforts should be made to avoid crises. Third, in the event of awareness of a potential crisis, pre-established crisis management mechanisms should be in place to prevent uncontrollable escalation. Fourth, if conflict and the use of nuclear weapons cannot be avoided, measures should be taken to terminate the conflict before it results in catastrophic consequences.

 Finally, Prof. Goldstein pointed out that against the current context of China-U.S. rivalry, it is extremely challenging for nuclear powers to avoid crises, and the management of such crises should be strengthened urgently.

During the Q&A session, Prof. Goldstein had discussion and exchange with the faculty and students present on various topics, such as the insight from the Cuban Missile Crisis and management of U.S.- Soviet Union crisis, the effectiveness of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the role of non-nuclear states in reducing the risk of nuclear war, the feasibility of limited nuclear warfare, and the impact of China's nuclear force modernization. (Contributed by: Chen Danmei)

Editor: Li Fangqi  Photographer: Zheng Peijie