Zhou Bo: Maritime Risk Management and Control
On June 21, 2017, the Institute of International & Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University (PKU) held the North Pavilion series seminar, inviting Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, Director of Security Cooperation Center, Office for International Military Cooperation, Central Military Commission, to give a keynote lecture on the topic of “Maritime Risk Management and Control”. The seminar was hosted by Associate Prof. Gui Yongtao, Assistant President of IISS.
Firstly, Colonel Zhou made an overall judgment on the current security risks faced by China. He believed that the safety risks of China are mainly maritime ones at the present stage.
Colonel Zhou analyzed the risks and their management and control from three aspects respectively-Sino-Japan, Sino-US and the South China Sea. He pointed out that the risks between China and Japan are more explosive than that between China and the United States. But if the Maritime and Air Communication Mechanism could be approved between the defense departments of China and Japan, it would be a major help to risk management and control.
Both China and the United States have tried to avoid the occurrence of major vicious incidents, the existing six institutional communication channels between the two armies as well as an important firewall for risk management and control. China and the United States can agree to disagree on differences around issues such as the “freedom of navigation”.
The situation of the South China Sea is generally stable. Although the United States embarked on the front stage from the back, it would avoid conflicts with the Chinese side, while the great changes in Sino-Philippine relations fundamentally changed the situation of the South China Sea.
In the Q&A session, Colonel Zhou indicated that the video telephone mechanism between China and the United States is not very different from the "red line" mechanism, which not only serves to manage and control risk, but rather to become normalization. (Contributed by Jing Danyang)
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